GUIDE深度 · Deep dive
What Is the 4 Percent Rule?
The 4 percent rule comes from US historical data: withdraw 4 percent in year one and adjust for inflation, and the portfolio likely lasts 30 years. It is not a guarantee; low returns, high fees and longevity can worsen the result.
Assumptions
A stock-bond portfolio over 30 years using US history.
Low fees, after-tax spending and no spending cuts.
More robust approach
Stress-test at 3 to 3.5 percent or use dynamic withdrawals.
Keep one to two years of cash to avoid selling in a downturn.
FAQ
Is 4 percent always safe?
No; it is a historical probability, not a guarantee.
Does it apply outside the US?
Retest with local markets, inflation and fees.